Kyle Frazier, J.D., Broker Associate with Compass | (415) 350-9440

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (June 2009–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

As noted in prior reports this year, Marin County, CA’s luxury segment is slow and currently weighted towards homes priced under $4 million. In fact, not a single home priced over $4 million sold in May 2009 and just 2 are currently in escrow (although that could change in a moment as the domino effect is very real in home sales). Of course, the luxury home slump exists throughout the country as affluent buyers wait for a signal to buy. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing dated June 14, 2009, click here. Yet, the news relating to home starts and permit applications is improved again this month. And while the stock market closed in the black for the year last week, this week has brought a correction. So, it appears we will continue to wait for the buying signal. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440.

Buyers are dubious of price stability for good reason (see chart below reflecting year over year median prices in Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield). But, increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board should help sales moving forward into the Summer er as buyers with 25% down will obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of $1.6 million. While not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many buyers of luxury homes must sell their current homes first (80% of buyers are sellers).

 Curiously, inventory levels in Kentfield and Mill Valley have risen moderately (around 20%) over last year, while Belvedere’s inventory has skyrocketed by over 65%. Prediction: Belvedere prices will continue to recede markedly through Q4 2009. Indeed, we can see that trend has set in dramatically in the above chart.

Despite the apparent slowdown, open houses have been extremely busy. Offers are being written. And our agents are noting a more focused approach by buyers. We are also starting to see buyers lose out on properties they loved because they assumed there was no urgency in writing an offer. The graph below reflects a 90-day rolling average of asking prices for homes in the topmost quartile (e.g. prices of the most expensive homes) in 3 touchstone Marin County cities: Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield. As you can see, over the past year, prices have declined.

$2 Million to $4 Million Luxury Homes

The scuttle on the street is that the 2009 Spring selling season will continue through the Summer as buyers spend time between school years to locate and buy the perfect home at a value price. Inventory has climbed to 146 homes on the market between $2 million and $4 million (up from 130 last month and 110 in March). Since the emergence of the “new economy,” post-October 2008, sales numbers in this price band are down. For example, there were 18 sales in October 2008 (a relatively strong time of year for sales and, of course, these buyers were well into their escrow periods at the time of the meltdown). In February 2009, we recorded just 2 sales. In April & May 2009, that number jumped back up to 8 sales.

Cities recording sales in this price band include: Tiburon (2), Belvedere (2), Mill Valley (1), and Kentfield (1), and Ross (2). These homes averaged 108 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.886 million (roughly $762 per square foot), with an average of 4,132 square feet. We also have a good number of homes in the escrow pipeline, including homes in Belvedere (3), Tiburon (4), Mill Valley (3), Ross (3), and Kentfield (1), and San Rafael (2). The absorption rate for Marin homes in this price band is approaching 18 months. Sellers must position their home at the head of the line when it comes to pricing if they want to sell.

$4 Million & Up Ultra-Luxury Homes

The inventory level of Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) remained static with 59 homes for sale. The highest concentrations of homes in this price band are Tiburon, Belvedere, and Ross. There were no sales last month. We have 2 homes currently in escrow in this price range. Marin cities and towns with homes priced over $4 million include Tiburon, Belvedere, Sausalito, Kentfield, Ross, Mill Valley, San Rafael, and Novato. The absorption rate for these homes cannot be accurately stated as the number of sales is too low to be meaningful. 

Marin Cities & Towns

$2 Million — $4 Million

$4 Million & Up

Active

Pending

Active

Pending

Sausalito

13

0

6

0

Belvedere

20

3

11

0

Tiburon

27

4

27

1

Mill Valley

30

3

5

0

Larkspur

4

0

0

0

Corte Madera

2

0

0

0

Kentfield

13

1

4

0

Greenbrae

3

0

0

0

Ross

9

3

8

1

San Anselmo

9

0

0

0

San Rafael

4

2

2

0

Novato

5

0

1

0

The above graph identifies the numbers of active listings and homes in contract in the Marin County luxury ($2 million to $4 million) and ultra-luxury ($4 million and up) home market segments. Note that all homes in contract are included in the category “Pending” even though some are technically “Contingent” properties (e.g., the buyers have not removed all contingencies). This information is limited to Marin County’s Highway 101 corridor towns and cities that consistently maintain a monthly inventory of luxury and ultra-luxury homes (Western Marin coastal homes are not included).By: Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Broker Associate, Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate, at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information. You can also e-mail Kyle at mailto:Kyle@ImagineMarin.com.

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (April 2009–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (April 2009–Sales and Inventory Analysis) Despite my self-imposed limited media diet, I do read headlines. And the headlines are becoming more optimistic. This is a prerequisite for increased buyer confidence. I remain convinced that with minimal social proof, buyers will return to the market and pent-up demand will create a surge in sales figures. Increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board is a recipe for sales. Buyers with 25% down (and who otherwise qualify) will be able to obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of a little over $1.6 million. While that is not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many potential move-up buyers of luxury homes must sell their homes first (it is said that 80% of buyers are also sellers) and this will be a big step in the right direction. And interest rates are a full 1-point lower today than they were last year. Certainly, the pump is primed as there are nearly 60 active escrows on homes priced $1 million and up (again, move-up buyers typically need to sell their current home). For national trends, click here — April 2009, Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call (415) 350-9440.
As noted above, we are seeing greater activity so far this year as the number of homes in escrow has increased and buyer enthusiasm is improved. Open houses have been extremely busy in all price bands with 30-50 groups being reported for new listings in desirable locales. Offers are being written. And our agents are noting a more focused approach by buyers. We are also starting to see buyers lose out on properties they love because they figured there was no urgency in writing an offer. The graph below reflects a 90-day rolling average of asking prices for homes in the topmost quartile (e.g. prices of the most expensive homes) in 3 touchstone Marin County cities: Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield. As you can see, over the past year, prices have declined in each. Note however, that a few homes in Kentfield marketed early last year were priced at the extreme high end, resulting in an exaggerated shift.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com
$2 Million to $4 Million Luxury Homes

As we enter steam into the Spring selling season, inventory has climbed to 130 homes on the market between $2 million and $4 million (up from 110 last month and 69 in February). Since the emergence of the “new economy,” post-October 2008, sales numbers in this price band are down. For example, there were 18 sales in October 2008 (a relatively strong time of year for sales and, of course, these buyers were well into their escrow periods at the time of the meltdown). In February 2009, we recorded just 2 sales. In March 2009, that number jumped up to 8 sales. Cities recording sales in this price band include: Tiburon (1), Belvedere (1), Mill Valley (1), Kentfield (1), Ross (1), and San Anselmo (2). These homes averaged 140 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.657 million (roughly $701 per square foot), with an average of 2,657 square feet. We also have a good number of homes in the escrow pipeline, including homes in Belvedere (3), Tiburon (2), Sausalito (1), Mill Valley (3),Greenbrae (1), Ross (1), and Kentfield (1).

$4 Million & Up Ultra-Luxury Homes
The inventory level in Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) rose to 45 homes for sale. The highest concentrations of homes in this price band are Tiburon, Belvedere, Sausalito, and Ross. There were 3 sales last month; 2 in Tiburon and 1 in Belvedere. The Belvedere home was a custom built 5 Bed, 6 Bath home on the Belvedere Lagoon with no expense spared — it sold for $4.9 million (an eye-popping $1,430 sq. ft.). The two homes in Tiburon were also impressive, including a $9 million sale of an estate with spectacular views of San Francisco and The Bay. Overall, these sales sold for an average price of $6.425 million, boasted an average of 5,822 sq. ft. (about $1,151 per sq. ft.), and were on the market for an average of 227 days. Other cities / towns with homes priced over $4 million include Kentfield, Mill Valley, San Rafael, and Novato.

Marin Cities & Towns

$2 Million — $4 Million

$4 Million & Up

Active

Pending

Active

Pending

Sausalito

5

0

5

0

Belvedere

16

4

6

2

Tiburon

36

2

16

0

Mill Valley

21

3

4

0

Larkspur

6

0

0

0

Corte Madera

2

0

0

0

Kentfield

13

1

2

0

Greenbrae

2

1

0

0

Ross

8

1

8

0

San Anselmo

10

1

0

0

San Rafael

10

0

2

0

Novato

1

0

1

0

The above graph identifies the numbers of active listings and homes in contract in the Marin County luxury ($2 million to $4 million) and ultra-luxury ($4 million and up) home market segments. Note that all homes in contract are included in the category “Pending” even though some are technically “Contingent” properties (e.g., the buyers have not removed all contingencies). This information is limited to Marin County’s Highway 101 corridor towns and cities that consistently maintain a monthly inventory of luxury and ultra-luxury homes (Western Marin coastal homes are not included).

By: Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Broker Associate, Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate, at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information. You can also e-mail Kyle at mailto:Kyle@ImagineMarin.com.