Kyle Frazier, J.D., Broker Associate Ι Pacific Union International | Christies International Real Estate | (415) 350-9440

Pacific Union – Christie’s International Real Estate | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (February 2013)

Pacific Union – Christie’s International Real Estate | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (February 2013). Beginning in November 2011, I began to note that Marin County buyers were feeling much more confident — that confidence translated into increased sales in 2012 across the board, from Sausalito to Novato. So far in 2013, year-to-date sales volume is down 9% from a year ago. Units sold are down 15%, but the median price is up 18.5% at $669,000. Average DOM is running at 103 days, which is down 16.75% from this time last year. Truly, the only hindrance to higher sales numbers is the virtually complete lack of homes for sale. Buyers and their agents are desperate for inventory. And this is not limited to just Marin. Agents throughout the San Francisco Bay Area are noting a similar trend.

Here are two examples of completely different market segments reflecting identical inventory shortages:

1) Tiburon & Belvedere — at the time of my writing the Tiburon & Belvedere Real Estate Report for February 2013, there were 9 homes in the MLS under $2 million. ALL of them were in escrow and there was not a single home priced under $2 million available on the MLS.

2) Novato — at the time I wrote my Novato Real Estate update for February 2013, 74% of homes priced under $500K were in escrow. Three of the five available homes were new to market and are in ecrow today. Essentially, the absorption rate in Novato under $500K is a fraction of a month. There is simply not enough inventory to satisfy demand. Investors and eager buyers are bidding up virtually all properties in this entry level price band.

 

Marin County Real Estate Market

Marin County Real Estate Market

Incredibly low inventory, historically low interest rates, a growing pool of “ready, able, and willing” buyers, are combining to make for an unprecedented Marin County real estate market. The sales numbers relative to inventory are truly unheard of. My advice to sellers this year is — “Join The Party!”

CALL ME if you are thinking of selling (350-9440). My systems can get you on market quickly with the very best marketing available. And my negotiation skills will net you more money on the sale of your home.

Marin Luxury Properties Report Pacific Union – Christie’s International Real Estate | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (October 2011)

Pacific Union Int’l – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (October 2011) — Luxury home sales slowed to 10 in September 2010. This reflects a seasonal lull as Summer travel takes center stage in August and home sales slow in Marin County). It remains clear that buyers will act quickly in the luxury home market when they feel a particular home reflects clear value and/or possess unique sales characteristics. Extraordinary opportunities are literally around every corner for buyers who can stomach uncertainty. Pricing in the marketplace (especially for homes that started off overpriced) is soft and “value” is evident in virtually every corner and every price segment of the luxury market.

In line with normal seasonal adjustments, the inventory of luxury homes remains constricted with just 122 properties actively listed over $2 million in Marin. This inventory level is lower than years past as prices have declined substantially in many markets (e.g., such that homes that priced at $2.25 million in 2006 are now priced below $2 million). Moreover, to the extent sellers do not have a compelling reason to sell now, most are waiting for prices to recover rather trade in today’s market.

Marin County cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in August 2011 included: Tiburon (1), Belvedere (1); Mill Valley (3); Larkspur (1); Sausalito (1); Ross (1); Kentfield (1). These homes averaged a mere 58 days on market (very low). Their average sales price was $2.59 million (roughly $718 per square foot), with an average of 3,720 square feet. Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) accounted for one sale last month — a 2.2 acre estate in the flats of Ross.

Note: As a member of the Top Agent Network (top 10% in Marin) and the Marin Platinum Group (Top 100 agents), I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently on the MLS, but discretely offered for sale off-market. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, J.D. & Broker, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Realtor with Pacific Union | Christie’s International Real Estate. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in Marin County, California (the San Francisco Bay Area’s “North Bay”).

Marin Luxury Properties Report Pacific Union International – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (August 2011)

Pacific Union Int’l – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (August 2011) — Luxury home sales continued through July (our swoon season) — we had 11 trades (there were 9 in January and just 7 in February 2011). While international events of the past 10 months and economic events this past month have made for a turbulent year in the luxury sector, it appears that buyers are continuing to snap up luxury homes that reflect clear value and/or possess unique sales characteristics. Certainly, there are extraordinary opportunities available right now for buyers. Pricing in the marketplace (especially for homes that started off overpriced) is soft and “value” is evident in virtually every corner and every price segment of the luxury market. In line with normal seasonal adjustments, the inventory of luxury homes remains somewhat low — 138 properties are in the MLS over $2 million in Marin (this is somewhat lower than years past as many home value have dipped below $2 million).

Marin County cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in March 2011 included: Tiburon (2), Belvedere (2); Mill Valley (2); Larkspur (1); San Anselmo (1); and San Rafael (1). These homes averaged 119 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.798 million (roughly $763 per square foot), with an average of 3,903 square feet. Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) accounted for two sales last month (one in Mill Valley and the other in Belvedere) and there are currently four more of these homes in escrow.

Note: As a member of the Top Agent Network (top 10% in Marin) and the Marin Platinum Group (Top 100 agents), I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently on the MLS, but discretely offered for sale off-market. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s Great Estates. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in Marin County, California (the San Francisco Bay Area’s “North Bay”).

Pacific Union International – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (January 2011)

Pacific Union Int’l – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (January 2011) — With 6 trades in December 2010, the luxury property real estate market in Marin County (properties and estates over $2 million) experienced one of its slowest months. This, despite the fact most economists and consumers feel that that the overall economic and housing environments are improving. Indeed, for real buyers there are extraordinary opportunities available right now. Pricing in the marketplace (especially for homes that have remained on the market through the Winter months) is softer than ever and “value” is evident in the luxury segment. In line with normal seasonal adjustments, the inventory of luxury homes for sale is very low.

Cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in December 2010 included: Belvedere (2), Sausalito (1), and Ross (1). These homes averaged 190 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.963 million (roughly $835 per square foot), with an average of 3,559 square feet.

Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) accounted for two sales last month, which averaged 233 days on market. Their average sales price was $9.125 million (roughly $1,958 per square foot), with an average of 6,000 square feet.

Note: As a member of the Marin Platinum Group, I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently on the MLS, but discretely offered for sale off-market. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s Great Estates. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in Marin County, California (the San Francisco Bay Area’s “North Bay”).

Pacific Union International | Christie’s Great Estates is the leading broker for Marin County luxury homes.

Christie’s Great Estates | Marin Luxury Homes Report (October 2010)

Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales — With 13 trades in September 2010, the luxury property market in Marin County (properties and estates over $2 million) again performed admirably in the face of uncertainty. As it is becoming clearer that the overall economic and housing environments are improving, real buyers are making legitimate offers. Pricing in the marketplace certainly suggests “value” and inventory is steadily increasing — there are now 163 homes actively on the market.

Cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in September 2010 included: Tiburon (4), Mill Valley (1), Belvedere (1), and Kentifield (2). In addition, Nicasio and Stinson Beach also recorded one sale appiece. These homes averaged 154 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.748 million (roughly $784 per square foot), with an average of 2,748 square feet.

Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) witnessed three sales last month. These homes averaged 100 days on market. Their average sales price was $5.06 million (roughly $1,177 per square foot) and 4,484 square feet. We currently have 60 homes for affluent buyers to choose from in this high end price band.

Note: As a member of the Marin Platinum Group, I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently offered on the MLS, but available for sale. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s Great Estates. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in San Francisco and Marin Counties.

Pacific Union International is the leading broker for Marin County luxury homes.

Christie’s Great Estates | Marin Luxury Homes Report (September 2010)

Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales — With 8 sales, the luxury property market in Marin County again performed admirably in the face of uncertainty. As it is becoming clearer that the overall economic and housing environments are improving, buyers are shaking off media ennui and making offers. Pricing in the marketplace certainly suggests “value” and inventory remains relatively low — we currently have just 132 homes actively on the market.

Cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in August 2010 included: Tiburon (3), Mill Valley (1), Greenbae (1), Ross (1), Corte Madera (1), and Sausalito (1). These homes averaged 117 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.518 million (roughly $732 per square foot), with an average of 2,518 square feet.

Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) accounted for one sale last month, a $7 million all cash sale for a new construction view home in Tiburon on 1.2 acres with a gated driveway, infinity pool, and excellent privacy. We currently have 51 homes for affluent buyers to choose from in this high end price band.

Note: As a member of the Marin Platinum Group, I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently offered on the MLS, but available for sale. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s Great Estates. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in San Francisco and Marin Counties.

Pacific Union International is the leading broker for Marin County luxury homes.

Pacific Union International | Marin Luxury Homes Report (May 2010)

As with many of Marin County’s micro-markets, Marin’s luxury home market is showing signs of increased velocity and buyer optimism. As reported in previous months, “real buyers” continue to snap up homes in prestige locations such as Mill Valley, Belvedere, Ross, Kentfield, etc., along with “value” properties with locational upside, views of San Francisco (such as those in Sausalito), southern exposures, knolltop properties. In the $2 million to $4 million price band, sales have eclipsed last year’s low numbers, inventory is down significantly and the number of homes with accepted offers (in escrow) is very high. This combination of factors looks promising for continued improvement. And we are not alone — click HERE for a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. The below chart shows the dramatic increase in the number of luxury homes sold in Marin County, as compared with last year.

$2 Million to $4 Million Luxury Homes

True to last month’s prediction, sales were up significantly in this luxury segment (with 17 sales, we more than doubled last year’s total for the month). Incredibly, we have another 26 homes currently in escrow. Again, this is a leading indicator of increased sales next month. Certainly, buyers are feeling some urge to buy as it appears that the overall economic and housing environments are improving and pricing in the marketplace suggests “value.” Inventory remains relatively low at just 136 homes on the market last month.

Cities recording April 2010 sales in this price band included: Belvedere (2), Tiburon (4), Mill Valley (6), Larkspur (1), Ross (1), San Rafael (1), and Kentfield (2). These homes averaged 92 days on market. Their average sales price was just over $2.6 million (roughly $749 per square foot), with an average of 3,585 square feet. The absorption rate for Marin homes in this price band dipped dramatically and is down to approximately 4 months.

$4 Million & Up Ultra-Luxury Homes

The low inventory level of Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) bumped upwards this month — we now have 63 homes for buyers to choose from.

Note: As a member of the Marin Platinum Group, I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently offered on the MLS, but available for sale. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

The highest concentrations of homes in this price band are Tiburon and Belvedere. Marin County experienced two such sales last month in this price band with an average sales price of $7.3 million (these homes averaged 9,290 square feet). As with sales in the lower luxury price band, we expect sales to pick up in the coming months as we head into the traditional selling season. We currently have six such homes in escrow (compared to zero this time last year). I look forward to coming months as this important segment of the Marin real estate market continues to improve.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Pacific Union International. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in San Francisco and Marin Counties.

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (March 2010–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

Marin County, California’s luxury home market continues to recover from the wasteland of late 2008 and early 2009 when it seemed as though the luxury home market would never recover. Yet, as reported in previous months, real buyers continue to snap up homes in prestige locations such as Belvedere, Ross, Kent Woodlands, etc., along with “value” properties with undeniable upside. In the $2 million to $4 million price band, sales are up 300% over last year and inventory is down 25% — this combination of factors looks promising for continued improvement. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, click HERE.

$2 Million to $4 Million Luxury Homes

The $2 million to $4 million price band  remains volatile with prices down 17% over the past 2 years. Despite this obvious and well-noted trend, many sellers have not adjusted their asking prices to reflect market realities. As noted in my columns over the past two years, a seller’s refusal to price correctly at the outset of the listing period is the single greatest mistake possible. Often, listing agents are willing accomplices however because they will “say anything” to obtain the listing. However, bottom line costs to sellers is very significant. I have developed a chart that show exactly just how bad it gets over time when Marin County sellers and their agents) overprice their homes — please call or e-mail me for a copy.

Following a lackluster January 2010, sales in February 2010 exploded with 9 trades, despite the typical seasonal slowdown. Moreover, we have another 16 homes currently in escrow. Certainly, buyers are feeling some urge to buy as it appears that the poor economic environment may be improving and the pricing in the marketplace suggests “value.” Inventory remains low (although higher than last month) at just 75 homes on the market.

Cities recording February 2010 sales in this price band included: Belvedere (1), Mill Valley (4), Kentfield (1), and Ross (1), and Greenbrae (2). These homes averaged 139 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.612 million (roughly $649 per square foot), with an average of 4,046 square feet. The absorption rate for Marin homes in this price band is 8.3 months.

$4 Million & Up Ultra-Luxury Homes

The already low inventory level of Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) held relatively even this month — there are 40 homes for sale compared with 36 last month. The highest concentrations of homes in this price band are Tiburon and Belvedere. Marin County experienced 2 sales last month in this price band — same as in January. Such limited sales activity vitiates the possibility of meaningful analysis. Sales are expected to pick up in the coming months as we head into the traditional selling season.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Morgan Lane International. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in San Francisco and Marin Counties.

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (February 2010–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

Marin County, California’s luxury home market continues to recover from the proverbial wasteland of late 2008 and early 2009 when it seemed as though the luxury home market would never recover. Yet, as reported in previous months, real buyers continue to snap up homes in prestige locations such as Belvedere, Ross, Kent Woodlands, etc. Indeed, “value” properties are gobbled up quickly. Despite this apparent thirst for luxury digs, inventory levels remain 40% higher than two years ago. This trend is not unique to Marin, but prevails nationwide. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, click HERE.

The below chart reflects the number of homes in the $2 million to $4 million luxury price band which are in escrow (compared against the past 2 years). Note that the number of homes with accepted offers (not closed sales), is up 50% from 2 years ago and 450% from last year. This is a promising trend.

Another statistic that may not be readily apparent to casual observers is the fact that prices in the $2 million to $4 million price band are stabilizing as median sales prices countywide are down just 6% over the past 2 years. Of course, the impact of the downturn varies greatly by neighborhood and even within neighborhoods based on amenities.

$2 Million to $4 Million Luxury Homes

Following a very strong November and December 2009, sales in January 2010 reflected our typical seasonal slowdown as Marin County recorded just 4 trades. Yet, we have another 13 homes in escrow. Certainly, buyers are feeling some urge to buy as it appears that the poor economic environment may be improving and the pricing in the marketplace suggests “value.” Inventory remains low (although higher than last month) at just 70 homes on the market between $2 million and $4 million.

Cities recording January 2010 sales in this price band included: Belvedere (1), Mill Valley (1), Kentfield (1), and Tiburon (1). These homes averaged 239 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.542 million (roughly $626 per square foot), with an average of 4,015 square feet. The absorption rate for Marin homes in this price band is 17.5 months (which is high due to the low number of trades and increased inventory).

$4 Million & Up Ultra-Luxury Homes

The already low inventory level of Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) held steady at 36 homes for sale. The highest concentrations of homes in this price band are Tiburon and Belvedere. Marin County experienced 2 sales last month in this price band — one was Sean Penn’s estate and the other was a one-of-a-kind supreme location estate which sold for $14 million. Both sales were in Ross and the latter was accomplished via a Morgan Lane buyer client.   

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Morgan Lane International. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in San Francisco and Marin Counties.

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (January 2010–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

Home sales in Marin County, California’s luxury price bands continue to recover from the proverbial wasteland of late 2008 and early 2009 when it seemed as though the luxury home market would never recover. Yet, as reported in previous months, real buyers continue to snap up homes in prestige locations such as Belvedere, Ross, Kent Woodlands, etc. Indeed, “value” properties are gobbled up quickly. Despite this apparent thirst for luxury digs, inventory levels remain 40% higher than two years ago. This trend is not unique to Marin, but prevails nationwide. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, click HERE.

The below graph tracks asking prices for 3 popular cities in Marin — Tiburon/Belvedere (they are combined here because they use the same zip code), Mill Valley, and Kentfield.

Year over year luxury market inventory levels in Mill Valley have hovered at around 20% higher than last year for 6 months (and are now down to about 12%). Meanwhile, inventory in Kentfield is up 22% and Tiburon – Belvedere inventory levels are over 42% higher than last year.

Below is a new chart focusing on the percentage of homes that have experiencd price reductions and the depth of those price reductions, on average. This chart examines these trends in Mill Valley and in Belvedere – Tiburon. It is perhaps not surprising that approximately 17% of listings in Tiburon – Belvedere have experienced a price reduction and those reductions average about 8%.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

$2 Million to $4 Million Luxury Homes

Following a strong November, sales in December (a traditionally slow month) were also quite high given the typical seasonal slowdown. With 15 trades, this December was stronger than anybody may have anticipated six months ago. Additionally we have 12 more homes in escrow. Certainly, buyers are feeling some urge to buy as it appears that the poor economic environment may be improving and the pricing in the marketplace suggests “value.” Inventory is low, as is typical this time of year, with just 56 homes on the market between $2 million and $4 million.

Cities recording December 2009 sales in this price band included: Belvedere (1), Ross (3) Mill Valley (2), Larkspur (1), Kentfield (1), Tiburon (5), and San Rafael (1), and San Anselmo 1). These homes averaged 139 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.626 million (roughly $715 per square foot), with an average of 3,968 square feet. The absorption rate for Marin homes in this price band is about 3.7 months (down from 13 months in November — this huge reduction is the result of seasonally reduced inventory levels).

$4 Million & Up Ultra-Luxury Homes

The already low inventory level of Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) dipped to 34 homes for sale. The highest concentrations of homes in this price band are Tiburon and Belvedere. Marin County experienced just 1 sale last month in this price band. It was a $5.4 million Belvedere estate with great views: days on market – 315, price – $5.4 million, square feet – 7,300.  

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Morgan Lane International. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in San Francisco and Marin Counties.