Kyle Frazier, J.D., Broker Associate Ι Pacific Union International | Christies International Real Estate | (415) 350-9440

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (July 2009–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

Marin County, CA’s luxury real estate market segment is slow and remains weighted towards homes priced under $4 million — just one home priced over $4 million sold in June 2009 and it was an off-the-market sale. The number of sales in June 2009 is off by over 40% from June 2008, yet the average price of sold homes is down just 3% from last year. In Marin, only the homes with special locations, views, or features seem to be getting significant attention. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing dated July 19, 2009, click here. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440. Yet, the news relating to home starts and permit applications is again improved this month. As earnings reports come in for Q2 and the stock market has found some hope in the numbers, it does not appear that such developments consitute the siren call buyers seek. 

As noted last month, buyers remain dubious of price stability for good reason. But, increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board should help sales moving forward into the Summer as buyers with 25% down will obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of $1.6 million. While not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, a sizable segment of buyers of luxury homes must sell their current homes first (80% of buyers are sellers). The chart below indicates that across the trend in Marin’s luxury segment is for lower prices — 10% to 28% lower than last year in Mill Valley, Belvedere, and Kentfield.

The year over year inventory levels in Mill Valley have hovered at around 20% for the past couple of months. Meanwhile, inventory in Kentfield has rocketed to 60% higher than last year. Belvedere is 75% higher than last year. Prediction: Kentfield and Belvedere prices will continue to recede markedly through Q4 2009. Indeed, we can see that trend has set in dramatically in the above chart.

Despite the apparent slowdown, open houses have been extremely busy. Offers are being written. And our agents are noting a more focused approach by buyers. One listing in our office, priced at over $10 million went into escrow last week after just 3 days on the market. We are also starting to see buyers lose out on properties they loved because they assumed there was no urgency in writing an offer. The graph below reflects a 90-day rolling average of asking prices for homes in the topmost quartile (e.g. prices of the most expensive homes) in 3 touchstone Marin County cities: Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield. As you can see, over the past year, prices have declined, although asking prices appear to have leveled in Mill Valley and Tiburon.

 

Below is a new chart focussing on the percentages of homes in Tiburon and Mill Valley that have experienced price reductions, as well as a look at how deep those reductions have been, on average.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com 

The definition of this market stat is:

“Percentage of homes on the market that have decreased their asking price at least once over the past 90-day period.” In any market, even in strong seller’s markets, there will always be some number of properties that will decrease their listing price. These may include sellers that drastically overpriced their homes just “to see what they could get” or homes that simply entered the market at a price level above what the market will bear.

Even in strong seller’s markets, the Percent Price Decreased will be 10-12%, so some repricing of individual properties is common in any market. In weaker markets, this value begins rise into the teens, 20%, 30%, and higher. Percent Price Decreased is an incredibly insightful gauge of demand levels in the residential housing market. This statistic illustrates how many listed properties may be behind the “price curve” – listed at a price above what the market is willing to pay for similar properties. However, “Percent Price Decreased” alone does not indicate the overall health of a particular market. This statistic should be combined with other market stats to determine the overall direction of a market.

$2 Million to $4 Million Luxury Homes

Historically, the Summer has been slow for Marin real estate because many families focus more on vacations than on home buying. But nothing has gone according to historical precedent in 2009. And this year buyers seem to be spending time between school years focussing on locating the perfect home at a value price. Inventory hovers at 135 homes on the market between $2 million and $4 million (down from 143 last month, but up from 110 in March).

Quick recap: Since the emergence of the “new economy” (typically identified as post-October 2008), sales numbers in this price band are down overall, but improving. For example, there were 18 sales in October 2008 (a relatively strong time of year for sales and, of course, these buyers were well into their escrow periods at the time of the meltdown). Then, by February 2009, sales dipped to just 2. As things began to improve in April & May 2009, sales bumped up to 8. The first 3 months of 2009 were simply abysmal. Overall, the past six months were the worst we have seen in 16 years. 

Yet, June 2009 was realtively strong with 16 sales and today we have an additional 18 homes in escrow. To sustain the apparent transition, we will need to see a sustained level of demand. May and June 2009 activity may represent the beginning of this recovery. However, the current rally described here applies only to units sold, not price appreciation.

Cities recording sales in this price band include: Tiburon (3), Belvedere (1), Mill Valley (3), Larkspur (1), and Kentfield (1), Ross (4), San Rafael (1), and Novato (1). These homes averaged 70 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.6 million (roughly $714 per square foot), with an average of 3,769 square feet. We also have a good number of homes in the escrow pipeline, including homes in Belvedere (4), Tiburon (5), Mill Valley (2), Ross (2), and Kentfield (2), and San Rafael (1), and Novato (1). The absorption rate for Marin homes in this price band is reduced to just under 10 months (down from nearly 18 months). Sellers must position their home at the head of the line when it comes to pricing if they want to sell.

$4 Million & Up Ultra-Luxury Homes

The inventory level of Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) remained static with 55 homes for sale. The highest concentrations of homes in this price band are Tiburon, Belvedere, and Ross. As referenced above, there was just one sale last month — an off-the-market sale of a spectular home for $5 million in Mill Valley’s Country Club neighborhood. We have 2 homes currently in escrow in this price range. Marin cities and towns with homes priced over $4 million include Tiburon, Belvedere, Sausalito, Kentfield, Ross, Mill Valley, San Rafael, and Novato. The absorption rate for these homes cannot be accurately stated as the number of sales is too low to be meaningful.

Marin Cities & Towns

$2 Million — $4 Million

$4 Million & Up

Active

Pending

Active

Pending

Sausalito

13

1

7

0

Belvedere

26

4

11

0

Tiburon

20

5

20

1

Mill Valley

30

2

4

0

Larkspur

3

0

0

0

Corte Madera

1

0

0

0

Kentfield

12

2

3

0

Greenbrae

1

0

0

0

Ross

8

2

7

1

San Anselmo

7

0

0

0

San Rafael

7

1

2

0

Novato

6

1

1

0

The above graph identifies the numbers of active listings and homes in contract in the Marin County luxury ($2 million to $4 million) and ultra-luxury ($4 million and up) home market segments. Note that all homes in contract are included in the category “Pending” even though some are technically “Contingent” properties (e.g., the buyers have not removed all contingencies). This information is limited to Marin County’s Highway 101 corridor towns and cities that consistently maintain a monthly inventory of luxury and ultra-luxury homes (Western Marin coastal homes are not included).By: Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Broker Associate, Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate, at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information. You can also e-mail Kyle at mailto:Kyle@ImagineMarin.com.

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (June 2009–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

As noted in prior reports this year, Marin County, CA’s luxury segment is slow and currently weighted towards homes priced under $4 million. In fact, not a single home priced over $4 million sold in May 2009 and just 2 are currently in escrow (although that could change in a moment as the domino effect is very real in home sales). Of course, the luxury home slump exists throughout the country as affluent buyers wait for a signal to buy. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing dated June 14, 2009, click here. Yet, the news relating to home starts and permit applications is improved again this month. And while the stock market closed in the black for the year last week, this week has brought a correction. So, it appears we will continue to wait for the buying signal. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440.

Buyers are dubious of price stability for good reason (see chart below reflecting year over year median prices in Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield). But, increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board should help sales moving forward into the Summer er as buyers with 25% down will obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of $1.6 million. While not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many buyers of luxury homes must sell their current homes first (80% of buyers are sellers).

 Curiously, inventory levels in Kentfield and Mill Valley have risen moderately (around 20%) over last year, while Belvedere’s inventory has skyrocketed by over 65%. Prediction: Belvedere prices will continue to recede markedly through Q4 2009. Indeed, we can see that trend has set in dramatically in the above chart.

Despite the apparent slowdown, open houses have been extremely busy. Offers are being written. And our agents are noting a more focused approach by buyers. We are also starting to see buyers lose out on properties they loved because they assumed there was no urgency in writing an offer. The graph below reflects a 90-day rolling average of asking prices for homes in the topmost quartile (e.g. prices of the most expensive homes) in 3 touchstone Marin County cities: Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield. As you can see, over the past year, prices have declined.

$2 Million to $4 Million Luxury Homes

The scuttle on the street is that the 2009 Spring selling season will continue through the Summer as buyers spend time between school years to locate and buy the perfect home at a value price. Inventory has climbed to 146 homes on the market between $2 million and $4 million (up from 130 last month and 110 in March). Since the emergence of the “new economy,” post-October 2008, sales numbers in this price band are down. For example, there were 18 sales in October 2008 (a relatively strong time of year for sales and, of course, these buyers were well into their escrow periods at the time of the meltdown). In February 2009, we recorded just 2 sales. In April & May 2009, that number jumped back up to 8 sales.

Cities recording sales in this price band include: Tiburon (2), Belvedere (2), Mill Valley (1), and Kentfield (1), and Ross (2). These homes averaged 108 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.886 million (roughly $762 per square foot), with an average of 4,132 square feet. We also have a good number of homes in the escrow pipeline, including homes in Belvedere (3), Tiburon (4), Mill Valley (3), Ross (3), and Kentfield (1), and San Rafael (2). The absorption rate for Marin homes in this price band is approaching 18 months. Sellers must position their home at the head of the line when it comes to pricing if they want to sell.

$4 Million & Up Ultra-Luxury Homes

The inventory level of Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) remained static with 59 homes for sale. The highest concentrations of homes in this price band are Tiburon, Belvedere, and Ross. There were no sales last month. We have 2 homes currently in escrow in this price range. Marin cities and towns with homes priced over $4 million include Tiburon, Belvedere, Sausalito, Kentfield, Ross, Mill Valley, San Rafael, and Novato. The absorption rate for these homes cannot be accurately stated as the number of sales is too low to be meaningful. 

Marin Cities & Towns

$2 Million — $4 Million

$4 Million & Up

Active

Pending

Active

Pending

Sausalito

13

0

6

0

Belvedere

20

3

11

0

Tiburon

27

4

27

1

Mill Valley

30

3

5

0

Larkspur

4

0

0

0

Corte Madera

2

0

0

0

Kentfield

13

1

4

0

Greenbrae

3

0

0

0

Ross

9

3

8

1

San Anselmo

9

0

0

0

San Rafael

4

2

2

0

Novato

5

0

1

0

The above graph identifies the numbers of active listings and homes in contract in the Marin County luxury ($2 million to $4 million) and ultra-luxury ($4 million and up) home market segments. Note that all homes in contract are included in the category “Pending” even though some are technically “Contingent” properties (e.g., the buyers have not removed all contingencies). This information is limited to Marin County’s Highway 101 corridor towns and cities that consistently maintain a monthly inventory of luxury and ultra-luxury homes (Western Marin coastal homes are not included).By: Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Broker Associate, Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate, at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information. You can also e-mail Kyle at mailto:Kyle@ImagineMarin.com.

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (April 2009–Sales and Inventory Analysis)

Marin County, California, Luxury Homes Report (April 2009–Sales and Inventory Analysis) Despite my self-imposed limited media diet, I do read headlines. And the headlines are becoming more optimistic. This is a prerequisite for increased buyer confidence. I remain convinced that with minimal social proof, buyers will return to the market and pent-up demand will create a surge in sales figures. Increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board is a recipe for sales. Buyers with 25% down (and who otherwise qualify) will be able to obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of a little over $1.6 million. While that is not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many potential move-up buyers of luxury homes must sell their homes first (it is said that 80% of buyers are also sellers) and this will be a big step in the right direction. And interest rates are a full 1-point lower today than they were last year. Certainly, the pump is primed as there are nearly 60 active escrows on homes priced $1 million and up (again, move-up buyers typically need to sell their current home). For national trends, click here — April 2009, Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call (415) 350-9440.
As noted above, we are seeing greater activity so far this year as the number of homes in escrow has increased and buyer enthusiasm is improved. Open houses have been extremely busy in all price bands with 30-50 groups being reported for new listings in desirable locales. Offers are being written. And our agents are noting a more focused approach by buyers. We are also starting to see buyers lose out on properties they love because they figured there was no urgency in writing an offer. The graph below reflects a 90-day rolling average of asking prices for homes in the topmost quartile (e.g. prices of the most expensive homes) in 3 touchstone Marin County cities: Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield. As you can see, over the past year, prices have declined in each. Note however, that a few homes in Kentfield marketed early last year were priced at the extreme high end, resulting in an exaggerated shift.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com
$2 Million to $4 Million Luxury Homes

As we enter steam into the Spring selling season, inventory has climbed to 130 homes on the market between $2 million and $4 million (up from 110 last month and 69 in February). Since the emergence of the “new economy,” post-October 2008, sales numbers in this price band are down. For example, there were 18 sales in October 2008 (a relatively strong time of year for sales and, of course, these buyers were well into their escrow periods at the time of the meltdown). In February 2009, we recorded just 2 sales. In March 2009, that number jumped up to 8 sales. Cities recording sales in this price band include: Tiburon (1), Belvedere (1), Mill Valley (1), Kentfield (1), Ross (1), and San Anselmo (2). These homes averaged 140 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.657 million (roughly $701 per square foot), with an average of 2,657 square feet. We also have a good number of homes in the escrow pipeline, including homes in Belvedere (3), Tiburon (2), Sausalito (1), Mill Valley (3),Greenbrae (1), Ross (1), and Kentfield (1).

$4 Million & Up Ultra-Luxury Homes
The inventory level in Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) rose to 45 homes for sale. The highest concentrations of homes in this price band are Tiburon, Belvedere, Sausalito, and Ross. There were 3 sales last month; 2 in Tiburon and 1 in Belvedere. The Belvedere home was a custom built 5 Bed, 6 Bath home on the Belvedere Lagoon with no expense spared — it sold for $4.9 million (an eye-popping $1,430 sq. ft.). The two homes in Tiburon were also impressive, including a $9 million sale of an estate with spectacular views of San Francisco and The Bay. Overall, these sales sold for an average price of $6.425 million, boasted an average of 5,822 sq. ft. (about $1,151 per sq. ft.), and were on the market for an average of 227 days. Other cities / towns with homes priced over $4 million include Kentfield, Mill Valley, San Rafael, and Novato.

Marin Cities & Towns

$2 Million — $4 Million

$4 Million & Up

Active

Pending

Active

Pending

Sausalito

5

0

5

0

Belvedere

16

4

6

2

Tiburon

36

2

16

0

Mill Valley

21

3

4

0

Larkspur

6

0

0

0

Corte Madera

2

0

0

0

Kentfield

13

1

2

0

Greenbrae

2

1

0

0

Ross

8

1

8

0

San Anselmo

10

1

0

0

San Rafael

10

0

2

0

Novato

1

0

1

0

The above graph identifies the numbers of active listings and homes in contract in the Marin County luxury ($2 million to $4 million) and ultra-luxury ($4 million and up) home market segments. Note that all homes in contract are included in the category “Pending” even though some are technically “Contingent” properties (e.g., the buyers have not removed all contingencies). This information is limited to Marin County’s Highway 101 corridor towns and cities that consistently maintain a monthly inventory of luxury and ultra-luxury homes (Western Marin coastal homes are not included).

By: Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Broker Associate, Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate, at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information. You can also e-mail Kyle at mailto:Kyle@ImagineMarin.com.

Extraordinary Service, Extraordinary Results — Kyle Frazier & ImagineMarin.com (Marin County’s Hub For Luxury Homes)

Kyle Frazier is a certified residential specialist–the highest designation offered by the National Association of Realtors. Client satisfaction is demanding in the rough and tumble world of luxury real estate. Kyle and his dedicated and caring team are there to meet the challenge.

Client Satisfaction Is Paramount

Kyle’s exemplary professionalism manifests itself in many ways, from treating everyone with courtesy and respect, to doing the right thing every time (not just when people are looking).  This focus on integrity and quality have benefited Kyle’s clients with tangible results and bnefitted Kyle with extraordinary good will.

Marin County property owners and real estate investors can rely on regular and consistent services carefully coordinated by Kyle and his team. Kyle’s #1 source of new business is referrals from past and current clients. The equation is simple: Happy clients lead to growth. And happy clients are created and nurtured by properly executed plans, carried out by knowledgable and caring people. This is Kyle’s focus.

Kyle Understands That Everybody Has Particularized And Unique Objectives

There is no cookie cutter approach to buying and selling real estate in Marin County, CA. Motivations of buyers and sellers ratchet along a sliding scale. At any given point in time, motivations can ratchet either direction. Understanding this phenomenon is a crucial skill of successful realtors. While Kyle cannot control the motivations of others, he can and does know how to best leverage knowledge in favor of his clients’ objectives.

Kyle also appreciates the fact that his business only succeeds if his clients’ goals are met via a consistent application of principled and directed action.

Kyle’s Endorsements

With gratitude, Kyle appreciates your stopping by ImagineMarin.com and encourages you to contact him with any questions you may have or to set up an appointment to help determine if Kyle is the REALTOR® for you. Indeed, Kyle believes his clients say it best (click HERE to view his endorsements).