Kyle Frazier, J.D., Broker Associate Ι Pacific Union International | Christies International Real Estate | (415) 350-9440

Marin County Real Estate (Q3 2013)

Marin County: Q3 Results
July was a very busy month in our Marin County region, followed by a seasonal lag in August and early September. The number of homes for sale remains constrained, keeping prices high and buyers scrambling, although we saw a slight uptick in the number of available properties in September.Homes priced $800,000 to $1 million saw aggressive bidding, and those priced above $1.6 million also saw robust sales, but the overall market calmed down somewhat after several quarters of increasingly overheated activity. The furious bidding that we saw in June had settled by September. Still, homes that are priced correctly and in popular neighborhoods – the Mill Valley market remains strong, for example – sold quickly.Investors remained eager to buy lower-priced properties, although that market tightened considerably in the third quarter. This is due in part to fewer foreclosures and short sales entering the market after months of rising home prices helped many underwater owners regain equity.

Looking Forward: We expect to see very strong sales in October and into early November – particularly if the inventory of available homes continues to expand – before activity slows as the holiday season approaches. Rising interest rates remain a wild card, constraining sales or perhaps prompting buyers to move fast.

Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price
The median sales price represents the midpoint in the range of all prices paid. It indicates that half the prices paid were higher than this number, and half were lower. It is not the same measure as “average” sales price.
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Months’ Supply of Inventory
The months’ supply of inventory is a measure of how quickly the current supply of homes would be sold at the current sales rate, assuming no more homes came on the market. In general, an MSI below 4 is considered a seller’s market; between 4 and 6 is a balanced market; and above 6 is a buyer’s market.
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Average Days on the Market
Average days on the market is a measure that indicates the pace of sales activity. It tracks, on average, the number of days a listing is active until it reaches “pending” status, meaning all contingencies have been removed and both parties are just waiting to close.
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Percentage of Properties Under Contract
Percentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity. It tracks expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes.
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Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the final list price, which may include price reductions from the original list price, determines the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sales amount. It also indicates the level of sales activity in a region.
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Pacific Union – Christie’s International Real Estate | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (January 2013)

Pacific Union – Christie’s International Real Estate | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (January 2013). The new year dawns with bright prospects for an active and successful 2013 in Bay Area real estate. But 2013 comes after an awkward year of recovery. Buyers, champing at the bit after a half-decade of retrenchment and recession, were forced to compete with each other for a limited supply of homes as sellers held out for higher prices after years of declines. Bidding wars became commonplace. However, prices drifted only slightly higher despite excruciatingly low inventory. Here’s a look back at the busy year that just ended:

JANUARY — The latest jobs data shows the first signs of economic recovery, with California’s unemployment rate falling to 11.1 percent in December 2011, the second month in a row the number declined. (Quick jump ahead: by November 2012 the unemployment rate had dropped further, to 9.8 percent.). Pacific Union International’s Q4 2011 Real Estate Report is released. In it we declare that 2012 “could be one of the finest times in the past twenty years to be a buyer of real estate,” with low home prices and exceptionally low interest rates. We were right on the money.

FEBRUARY — Sellers are urged to “join the party” as the number of homes under contract jumps significantly. In Marin County, homes under contract were up an astounding 82 percent from the start of the year. A look at the math shows that historically low interest rates give homebuyers an extra $100,000 in purchasing power. (And it still holds true today.)

MARCH — Rental rates are rising precipitously across the Bay Area — up 16 percent in San Francisco — making buying a home an even more attractive option.

APRIL — Pacific Union gets kudos from our peers with the release of a Real Trends survey showing that our real estate professionals are the fifth most productive in the United States and a report from Real Estate Magazine naming us one of the nation’s top “Power Brokers.” Buyer demand in the first quarter drives an increase in the number of homes sold in all seven of Pacific Union’s Bay Area regions. The upcoming America’s Cup yacht races are fueling a boom in San Francisco real estate as buyers jockey for homes with commanding views of San Francisco Bay.

MAY — Homes are more affordable than ever, according to a report from the California Association of Realtors. The percentage of households that could afford to purchase a median-priced, single-family home in the Bay Area rose to 45 percent in the first quarter, a record high. Rising home sales and prices make clear the housing recovery is on solid footing in the Bay Area, according to our own monthly market analysis and a report from the California Association of Realtors. Pacific Union expands in Northern California with the opening of offices in the North Lake Tahoe area.

JUNE — The Bay Area housing market and overall economic scene continue to set the pace for the national recovery, and sometimes that means standing in contrast to gloomy national reports. We’re pleased to report that Pacific Union is expanding again, this time launching Pacific Union International Property Management Inc. Kudos continue: A list of the top 1,000 real estate professionals and teams in the United States includes three from Pacific Union. Reports in the national news media declare that “the housing bust is over,” which comes as no surprise to homebuyers and sellers in the Bay Area.
JULY — Pacific Union’s exclusive interview with economist Stephen Levy makes clear that the economic recovery has reached all corners of the Bay Area and is enduring. Our Q2 Real Estate Report shows home sales are up more than 30 percent across the Bay Area, foretelling a strong year ahead.

AUGUST — The Bay Area continues to lead California’s economic recovery, and that’s good news for the region’s housing market. In a sign of how tight the housing market has become, the Oakland metro area is No. 1 in the nation for the greatest reduction of homes for sale. It’s also No. 1 for the shortest number of days on the market.
SEPTEMBER — Foreclosure activity drops sharply across the Bay Area, led by San Francisco, where notices of default — the first step in the foreclosure process — fall 71 percent from a year ago. The Bay Area’s red-hot real estate market continues to set records, with August home sales at a six-year high. Home ownership can bring big savings when compared with the cost of renting in San Francisco and Oakland, according to a report from the online real estate search service Trulia.
OCTOBER — The East Bay housing market has trailed San Francisco in its recovery from the recession, but recent reports suggest the region’s economy is poised for substantial growth in the coming year. Our Q3 Real Estate Report has plenty of good news in it: Home values are rising, foreclosures are dropping, and housing starts are increasing across the Bay Area. We’re on track to see the best year in housing since 2005 in many regions.
NOVEMBER — The monthly Case-Shiller home prices report confirms that home prices continue to rise at a steady pace across the Bay Area as well as nationwide, but a close look at the numbers also reveals much more: the extent of the housing market collapse five years ago and the strength of the recovery now under way.
DECEMBER —  The supply of homes for sale in the Bay Area remains severely constrained, but that hasn’t held back buyers. They’re snapping up properties at a pace we haven’t seen in at least six years. Tech companies like Pinterest and Square are increasingly choosing San Francisco over Silicon Valley for office space, and that’s having a direct effect on residential real estate in the city. The Bay Area continues to drive California’s economic recovery, with the state’s unemployment rate dropping below 10 percent for the first time in nearly four years. That’s a good sign for real estate markets.

Source: PacUnion.com

Kyle Frazier, J.D. & Broker, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Realtor with Pacific Union | Christie’s International Real Estate. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in Marin County, California (the San Francisco Bay Area’s “North Bay”).

Marin Luxury Properties Report Pacific Union – Christie’s International Real Estate | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (December 2011)

Pacific Union Int’l – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (December 2011) — Luxury home sales have maintained a solid pace over the past three months (we had 10 sales over $2 million last month, same as November and October. It remains clear that buyers will act quickly in the luxury home market when they feel a particular home reflects clear value and/or possess unique sales characteristics. Extraordinary opportunities are literally around every corner for buyers who can stomach uncertainty. Pricing in the marketplace (especially for homes that started off overpriced) is fairly soft and “value” is evident in virtually every corner and every price segment of the luxury market.

In line with normal seasonal adjustments (we are in the middle of the slow season now), the inventory of luxury homes remains constricted with just 99 properties actively listed over $2 million in Marin. This inventory level is lower than years past as prices have declined substantially in many markets (e.g., such that homes that priced at $2.25 million in 2006 are now priced below $2 million). Moreover, to the extent sellers do not have a compelling reason to sell now, most are waiting for prices to recover rather trade in today’s market.

Marin County cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in November 2011 included: Tiburon (3), Belvedere (1); Mill Valley (1); San Anselmo (1); Sausalito (1); Kentfield (2). These homes averaged 80 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.7 million (roughly $735 per square foot), with an average of 3,978 square feet. Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) flat-lined in November as we saw no trades.

Note: As a member of the Top Agent Network (top 10% in Marin) and the Marin Platinum Group (Top 100 agents), I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently on the MLS, but discretely offered for sale off-market. Please contact me regarding your specific desires. In addition, if you are looking for an agent to aggressively and intelligently market your home, please call me. I am a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist.

By: Kyle Frazier, J.D. & Broker, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Realtor with Pacific Union | Christie’s International Real Estate. Call Kyle Frazier at            415/350-9440       for more luxury home market information in Marin County, California (the San Francisco Bay Area’s “North Bay”).

Marin Luxury Properties Report Pacific Union International – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (March 2011)

Pacific Union Int’l – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (March 2011) — As anticipated, February 2011 luxury home sales were limited to just 7 trades (there were 9 in January 2011). While international events of the past several weeks weigh on our hearts and have had some impact on the stock market, many believe that the overall economic and housing environments are improving, particularly in the Bay Area where the recovery in real estate is being spearheaded by San Francisco. Indeed, there are extraordinary opportunities available right now for buyers as pricing in the marketplace (especially for homes that have remained on the market through the Winter months) is soft and “value” is evident in virtually every segment of the luxury segment. In line with normal seasonal adjustments, the inventory of luxury homes for sale is very low — just 123 homes total on the MLS over $2 million in Marin (this is up from last month and will continue to rise through the Spring).

Marin County cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in March 2011 included: Sausalito (2), Tiburon (1), Kentfield (1), and Mill Valley (1). These homes averaged 192 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.671 million (roughly $711 per square foot), with an average of 3,783 square feet.

Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) accounted for two sales last month and there are currently eight more of these homes in escrow. This is a big shift from last month, when at the time of writing my monthly update on this market segment, this strata of the market was comatose. Both of the ultra-luxury homes that sold last month were in Kentfield, had over 5,500 sf of living space, and sat on large parcels (one sat on 1.1 acres and the other sat on 2.5+ acres).

Note: As a member of the Top Agent Network (top 10% in Marin) and the Marin Platinum Group (Top 100 agents), I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently on the MLS, but discretely offered for sale off-market. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s Great Estates. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in Marin County, California (the San Francisco Bay Area’s “North Bay”).

Pacific Union International – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (February 2011)

Pacific Union Int’l – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (February 2011) — In line with expectations, January 2011 luxury home sales were limited with 9 trades (there were just 6 in December 2010). Of course, many buyers, most economists, and consumer sentiment are feeling bouyant about our the economic and housing environments. Indeed, there are extraordinary opportunities available right now for buyers as pricing in the marketplace (especially for homes that have remained on the market through the Winter months) is soft and “value” is evident in virtually every segment of the luxury segment. In line with normal seasonal adjustments, the inventory of luxury homes for sale is very low — just 96 homes total on the MLS over $2 million in Marin.

Cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in February 2011 included: Belvedere (1), San Anselmo (1), San Rafael (1), Tiburon (1), Kentfield (3), and Ross (1). These homes averaged 116 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.521 million (roughly $807 per square foot), with an average of 3,522 square feet. Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) accounted for zero sales last month and there are currently zero such homes in escrow.

Note: As a member of the Top Agent Network (top 10% in Marin) and the Marin Platinum Group (Top 100 agents), I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently on the MLS, but discretely offered for sale off-market. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s Great Estates. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in Marin County, California (the San Francisco Bay Area’s “North Bay”).

Pacific Union International – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (January 2011)

Pacific Union Int’l – Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales (January 2011) — With 6 trades in December 2010, the luxury property real estate market in Marin County (properties and estates over $2 million) experienced one of its slowest months. This, despite the fact most economists and consumers feel that that the overall economic and housing environments are improving. Indeed, for real buyers there are extraordinary opportunities available right now. Pricing in the marketplace (especially for homes that have remained on the market through the Winter months) is softer than ever and “value” is evident in the luxury segment. In line with normal seasonal adjustments, the inventory of luxury homes for sale is very low.

Cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in December 2010 included: Belvedere (2), Sausalito (1), and Ross (1). These homes averaged 190 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.963 million (roughly $835 per square foot), with an average of 3,559 square feet.

Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) accounted for two sales last month, which averaged 233 days on market. Their average sales price was $9.125 million (roughly $1,958 per square foot), with an average of 6,000 square feet.

Note: As a member of the Marin Platinum Group, I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently on the MLS, but discretely offered for sale off-market. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s Great Estates. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in Marin County, California (the San Francisco Bay Area’s “North Bay”).

Pacific Union International | Christie’s Great Estates is the leading broker for Marin County luxury homes.

Christie’s Great Estates | Marin Luxury Homes Report (October 2010)

Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales — With 13 trades in September 2010, the luxury property market in Marin County (properties and estates over $2 million) again performed admirably in the face of uncertainty. As it is becoming clearer that the overall economic and housing environments are improving, real buyers are making legitimate offers. Pricing in the marketplace certainly suggests “value” and inventory is steadily increasing — there are now 163 homes actively on the market.

Cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in September 2010 included: Tiburon (4), Mill Valley (1), Belvedere (1), and Kentifield (2). In addition, Nicasio and Stinson Beach also recorded one sale appiece. These homes averaged 154 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.748 million (roughly $784 per square foot), with an average of 2,748 square feet.

Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) witnessed three sales last month. These homes averaged 100 days on market. Their average sales price was $5.06 million (roughly $1,177 per square foot) and 4,484 square feet. We currently have 60 homes for affluent buyers to choose from in this high end price band.

Note: As a member of the Marin Platinum Group, I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently offered on the MLS, but available for sale. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s Great Estates. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in San Francisco and Marin Counties.

Pacific Union International is the leading broker for Marin County luxury homes.

Christie’s Great Estates | Marin Luxury Homes Report (September 2010)

Christie’s Great Estates | Marin County, CA Luxury Home Sales — With 8 sales, the luxury property market in Marin County again performed admirably in the face of uncertainty. As it is becoming clearer that the overall economic and housing environments are improving, buyers are shaking off media ennui and making offers. Pricing in the marketplace certainly suggests “value” and inventory remains relatively low — we currently have just 132 homes actively on the market.

Cities recording luxury home sales between $2 million and $4 million in August 2010 included: Tiburon (3), Mill Valley (1), Greenbae (1), Ross (1), Corte Madera (1), and Sausalito (1). These homes averaged 117 days on market. Their average sales price was $2.518 million (roughly $732 per square foot), with an average of 2,518 square feet.

Marin County’s ultra-luxury market (homes priced in the $4 million and up range) accounted for one sale last month, a $7 million all cash sale for a new construction view home in Tiburon on 1.2 acres with a gated driveway, infinity pool, and excellent privacy. We currently have 51 homes for affluent buyers to choose from in this high end price band.

Note: As a member of the Marin Platinum Group, I have access to a database with several dozen luxury homes not currently offered on the MLS, but available for sale. Please contact me regarding your specific desires.

By: Kyle Frazier, Certified Luxury Home Marketing Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Broker Associate, Realtor | Christie’s Great Estates — Christie’s Great Estates. Call Kyle Frazier at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information in San Francisco and Marin Counties.

Pacific Union International is the leading broker for Marin County luxury homes.